Manufacturing & Robotics

135 advances: 118 achieved, 10 at the frontier now, 7 ahead.

The frontier

• Tesla Optimus 2022 · frontier
  Unveiled Sept 2022; still emerging.
• Agricultural robot 2022 · frontier
  Robot in agriculture. News outlets reported a novel agricultural robot for viable weed control using lasers [ image needed ] or "laserweeding". There are similar precision agriculture machines that have been reported before, also e.g.
• Autonomous underwater vehicle 2022 · frontier
  Untethered submersible manned or unmenned.
• Electronic skin 2022 · frontier
  Electronics mimicing skin functionalities. Researchers reported a robotic finger covered in a type of manufactured living human skin.
• Vision-language-action models 2023 · frontier
  Google RT-2 and successors map vision and language to robot actions.
• Humanoid robots 2024 · frontier
  Figure, Tesla Optimus, Unitree, and others enter pilot deployments.
• High-NA EUV 2024 · frontier
  ASML EXE:5000 shipped to Intel (2023–24).
• Schaeffler "humanoids making humanoids" factory, Taicang 2026 · frontier
  Six humanoids at five stations assemble actuators for next-gen humanoids; start of component mass production.
• AGCO signs Agility Digit humanoid pilot (Kansas plant, 2027) 2026 · frontier
  Commercial agreement for Digit to sort, stack and place totes in AGCO's Hesston facility from 2027.
• GXO expands Agility Digit humanoids to two more US sites 2026 · frontier
  After 100,000+ tote moves in Georgia, Digit deployments extend to Statesville NC and Lebanon TN from early 2027.
• General-purpose humanoid workforce · future · progress: demonstrated
  Robots that learn any manual task from demonstration and work safely beside people.
• Lights-out factories for most goods · future · progress: demonstrated
  Fully automated production lines in most industries, not just a few showcase plants.
• Self-replicating robot industry · future · progress: none
  Factories run by robots that build robots and the factories that make them, so capital stock grows exponentially.
• Self-replicating space factories · future · progress: early
  Stage 1 von Neumann probe: a seed factory in the solar system that turns asteroid or lunar material into copies of itself. Studied by NASA in 1980; RepRap and in-orbit printing are small first steps.
• Human-level dexterous robot hands · future · progress: demonstrated
  Robot hands that manipulate anything a human can, the gap between today's humanoids and a general workforce.
• Autonomous construction robots · future · progress: demonstrated
  Robots that 3D-print and assemble buildings, roads, and landing pads, on Earth and off it.
• Autonomous robotic surgery · future · progress: demonstrated
  Surgical robots that plan and execute operations under supervision, making transplants and implants routine everywhere.

How we got here

• Sim-to-real reinforcement learning (OpenAI Dactyl) 2018 · achieved
  A dexterous hand trained in simulation solves a Rubik's cube.
• Delivery drones (Prime Air, Wing) 2016 · achieved
  First Prime Air delivery in Cambridge, UK (Dec 2016); Wing got the first FAA air carrier certificate (2019).
• Unitree low-cost legged robots 2016 · achieved
  Mass-produced Chinese quadrupeds and humanoids.
• Zipline drone medical delivery 2016 · achieved
  Fixed-wing drones deliver blood in Rwanda, from 2016.
• 3D printing 2014 · achieved
  Layer-by-layer additive process used to make a three-dimensional object. 2014 – A 3D printer is used for first ever skull transplant.
• Pepper 2014 · achieved
  Model of robot. 2014: Introduction of Pepper, the first commercial humanoid robot
• Amazon Robotics (Kiva acquisition) 2012 · achieved
  Bought for $775M; over 750,000 robots by 2023.
• Collaborative robots 2008 · achieved
  Universal Robots UR5 works safely beside humans.
• Robot Operating System 2007 · achieved
  Open-source robotics middleware.
• Immersion lithography (193i) 2006 · achieved
  Burn Lin (TSMC) championed water immersion; ASML volume tools from 2006.
• RepRap self-replicating 3D printer 2005 · achieved
  Adrian Bowyer's open-source 3D printer that can print many of its own parts: the first practical step toward machines that copy themselves.
• BigDog / Atlas (Boston Dynamics) 2005 · achieved
  Dynamic legged robots.
• DARPA Grand Challenge 2005 · achieved
  Stanley wins the desert race.
• HAL 2004 · achieved
  Powered exoskeleton suit. Robotic exoskeleton for motion support (medicine)
• Kiva warehouse robots 2003 · achieved
  Goods-to-person warehouse robots, bought by Amazon in 2012.
• Roomba 2002 · achieved
  Mass-market home robot.
• Lights-out manufacturing 2001 · achieved
  FANUC robots build robots unattended.
• ASIMO 2000 · achieved
  Honda's bipedal humanoid.
• da Vinci surgical system 2000 · achieved
  FDA-cleared teleoperated surgical robot.
• AIBO 1999 · achieved
  Robotic dog made by Sony. Sony introduces an improved domestic robot similar to a Furby, the AIBO becomes one of the first artificially intelligent "pets" that is also autonomous.
• Furby 1998 · achieved
  Electronic robotic toy. Tiger Electronics ' Furby is released, and becomes the first successful attempt at producing a type of AI designated for a domestic environment.
• Mars rovers (Sojourner) 1997 · achieved
  Sojourner, then Spirit, Opportunity, Curiosity and Perseverance.
• Step-and-scan lithography 1990 · achieved
  Perkin-Elmer/SVG Micrascan; ASML PAS 5500 (1991) won the market.
• Kola Superdeep Borehole 1989 · achieved
  Narrow shaft bored in the ground. The deepest borehole in the world.
• SLAM 1986 · achieved
  Simultaneous localization and mapping.
• Inverted pendulum 1982 · achieved
  Pendulum with center of mass above pivot. Research Crossbar Adaptive Array Stevo Bozinovski reports a self-learning system using secondary reinforcement.
• Excimer laser DUV lithography 1982 · achieved
  Jain (IBM) proposed excimer lithography in 1982; KrF 248 nm in production in the 1990s, ArF 193 nm from about 2001.
• SCARA robot 1981 · achieved
  A Yamanashi University design for fast assembly.
• NASA Advanced Automation for Space Missions study (self-replicating lunar factory) 1980 · achieved
  A NASA/ASEE summer study designed a self-replicating lunar factory, the first engineering study of a von Neumann-style space factory.
• Wafer stepper (GCA DSW 4800) 1978 · achieved
  Step-and-repeat projection lithography.
• WABOT-1 1973 · achieved
  Waseda's full-scale humanoid.
• Stanford Arm 1969 · achieved
  An all-electric, computer-controlled 6-axis arm.
• Programmable logic controller 1968 · achieved
  Modicon 084 replaced relay logic at GM.
• Shakey the robot 1966 · achieved
  SRI mobile robot that reasoned about its actions; it gave rise to A* search.
• Powered exoskeleton 1965 · achieved
  Wearable machine meant to enhance a person's strength and mobility. 1960: First robotic exoskeleton
• Industrial robot 1961 · achieved
  Unimate at GM, 1961.
• Laminar-flow cleanroom (Whitfield) 1960 · achieved
  Sandia's laminar airflow design.
• Numerical control (CNC) 1952 · achieved
  MIT Servomechanisms Lab NC milling machine.
• Self-replicating machine 1948 · achieved
  Device able to make copies of itself. 1948 – John von Neumann mathematically studies self-reproducing machines.
• Grey Walter's tortoises 1948 · achieved
  Autonomous light-seeking mobile robots.
• Cybernetics 1948 · achieved
  Wiener's science of control and communication.
• Toyota Production System 1948 · achieved
  Lean and just-in-time manufacturing.
• Ball screw 1929 · achieved
  Low friction linear actuator. 1929: The ball screw is invented by Rudolph G. Boehm.
• Garbage disposal unit 1927 · achieved
  Wastage of food due to discardment, disposal, expiration, or loss. A garbage disposal is a device, usually electrically powered, installed under a kitchen sink between the sink's drain and the trap which shreds food waste into pieces small enough to pass through plumbing.
• Quartz clock 1927 · achieved
  Clock type. Quartz wristwatch
• Axial compressor 1921 · achieved
  Pressure producing machine. 1921: Maxime Guillaume patents the axial-flow turbine engine. It uses multiple stages in both the compressor and turbine, combined with a single very large combustion chamber.
• R.U.R. coins "robot" 1920 · achieved
  Čapek's play introduces the word robot.
• Nut 1918 · achieved
  Type of fastener with a threaded hole. A torque wrench is a tool used to precisely apply a specific torque to a fastener such as a nut or bolt. It is usually in the form of a socket wrench with special internal mechanisms. It was invented by Conrad Charles Bahr in 1918.
• Moving assembly line 1913 · achieved
  Ford Highland Park, 1913.
• Centrifugal compressor 1903 · achieved
  Sub-class of dynamic axisymmetric work-absorbing turbomachinery. 1903: Ægidius Elling builds a gas turbine using a centrifugal compressor which runs under its own power. By most definitions, this is the first working gas turbine.
• Vacuum cleaner 1901 · achieved
  Device that uses air to suck up dirt and other substances. 1901: The first motorized cleaner using suction, a powered " vacuum cleaner ", is patented independently by Hubert Cecil Booth and David T. Kenney.
• Escalator 1892 · achieved
  Moving staircase. Spiral escalator
• Servomechanism / feedback control 1868 · achieved
  Maxwell's "On Governors"; Farcot's servomotor.
• Myriad year clock 1851 · achieved
  Japanese cultural artifact. Myriad year clock
• Hydraulic accumulator 1850 · achieved
  Reservoir to store and stabilise fluid pressure. 1850: William Armstrong invents the hydraulic accumulator.
• Safety pin 1849 · achieved
  Pointed fastener with a locking mechanism, often used to secure clothing and cloth diapers. 1849: Walter Hunt invents the safety pin.
• Pin tumbler lock 1848 · achieved
  Lock mechanism. 1848: Linus Yale Sr. invents the first modern pin tumbler lock.
• Jackhammer 1848 · achieved
  Pneumatic tool. 1848: Jonathan J. Couch invents the pneumatic drill.
• Sewing machine 1846 · achieved
  A machine used to sew fabric and materials together with thread. 1846: Elias Howe received a patent for a sewing machine, the model for the Singer Sewing Machine
• Blueprint 1840 · achieved
  Document reproduction created by using a contact print process on light-sensitive sheets. 1840: John Herschel invents the blueprint.
• Machine taper 1836 · achieved
  System for securing cutting tools or toolholders in the spindle of a machine tool or power tool. 1836 – An American scientist, Dr. David Alter, invented the first known American electric telegraph in Elderton, Pennsylvania, one year before the much more popular Morse telegraph was invented.
• Shaper 1836 · achieved
  Type of machine tool that uses linear relative motion between the workpiece and a single-point cutting tool to machine a linear toolpath. 1822: Thomas Blanchard invents the pattern-tracing lathe (actually more like a shaper ). The lathe can copy symmetrical shapes and is used for making gun stocks, and later, ax handles.
• Lawn mower 1830 · achieved
  Machine that uses one or more revolving blades to cut a lawn to an even height.. 1830: Edwin Budding invents the lawn mower.
• Reaping machine 1828 · achieved
  Horse-drawn or tractor-mounted farm tool. 1828: Patrick Bell invents the reaping machine.
• Jacquard loom 1804 · achieved
  Punched-card-controlled loom.
• Interchangeable parts 1801 · achieved
  French and American armories, Whitney 1801.
• Hydraulic press 1795 · achieved
  Machine press using a hydraulic cylinder to generate a compressive force. 1795: Joseph Bramah invents the hydraulic press
• Centrifugal governor 1788 · achieved
  Mechanism for automatically controlling the speed of an engine. 1788 ( 1788 ): Watt builds the first steam engine to use a centrifugal governor for the Boulton & Watt Soho factory.
• Air compressor 1776 · achieved
  Devicecompresor. 1776: John Wilkinson invents a mechanical air compressor that would become the prototype for all later mechanical compressors
• Boring 1774 · achieved
  Process of enlarging a hole that has already been drilled. 1774: John Wilkinson invents his boring machine, considered by some to be the first machine tool
• Jaquet-Droz automata 1774 · achieved
  A programmable writing automaton (The Writer).
• Factory system 1771 · achieved
  Cromwell Mill, 1771.
• Mechanized textile (spinning jenny, water frame) 1764 · achieved
  Hargreaves 1764, Arkwright 1769.
• Vaucanson's automata 1739 · achieved
  The Digesting Duck and Flute Player.
• Differential 1720 · achieved
  Type of simple planetary gear train. 1720 - Differential gear invented by Joseph Williamson.
• Karakuri puppets 1662 · achieved
  Tea-serving mechanical dolls of Edo Japan.
• Pendulum clock 1656 · achieved
  Timekeeping device. 1656: Pendulum clock: Invented by Christiaan Huygens. It was first conceptualized in 1637 by Galileo Galilei but he was unable to create a working model.
• Turret clock 1650~ · achieved
  Clock that is larger than a domestic clock and has a mechanism designed to drive a visual time indicator such as dials and or bells as a public amenity. Mercury clock: A detailed account of technology in Islamic Spain was compiled under Alfonso X of Castile between 1276 and 1279, which included a compartmented mercury clock, which was influential up until the 17th century.
• Roasting jack 1551 · achieved
  Device for turning a spit. Steam jack: A steam-powered roasting jack was first described by the Ottoman polymath and engineer Taqi al-Din in his Al-Turuq al-samiyya fi al-alat al-ruhaniyya ( The Sublime Methods of Spiritual Machines ), in 1551 CE (959 AH).
• Hookah 1550~ · achieved
  Type of water pipe used for smoking. 16th century: Hookah by Irfan Shaikh, at the court of the Mughal emperor Akbar I
• Mainspring 1450~ · achieved
  Spiral torsion spring of metal ribbon used as a power source in mechanical watches, some clocks, and other clockwork mechanisms. 15th century: Mainspring in Europe
• Coil spring 1450~ · achieved
  Spring type formed into a helix shape. Early 15th century: Coil spring in Europe
• Brace 1420 · achieved
  Type of hand drill. 1420s: Brace in Flanders, Holy Roman Empire
• Al-Jazari automata and crankshaft machines 1206 · achieved
  Book of Knowledge of Ingenious Mechanical Devices, 1206.
• Quadrant 1050~ · achieved
  Navigation instrument. Astrolabic quadrant was invented in Egypt in the 11th century or 12th century, and later known in Europe as the " Quadrans Vetus " (Old Quadrant).
• Banu Musa programmable devices 850 · achieved
  Book of Ingenious Devices, including an automatic flute player.
• Incense clock 550~ · achieved
  Clock and censer: the burning incense cuts the strings hold the weights, which fall at regular intervals. Incense clock: Incense clocks originated in China during the 6th century and later made their way to Japan, with one example preserved in the Shōsōin.
• Single-roller cotton gin (India) 450~ · achieved
  Machine that separates cotton fibers from seeds. Single roller cotton gin – The Ajanta Caves of India yield evidence of a single roller cotton gin in use by the 5th century. This cotton gin was used in India until innovations were made in form of foot powered gins.
• Kasserine Dam 150~ · achieved
  Dam in Tunisia. Examples include curved dams at Orükaya, Çavdarhisar, both Turkey (and 2nd century), Kasserine Dam in Tunisia, and Puy Foradado Dam in Spain (2nd–3rd century)
• Heron's fountain 70 · achieved
  Hydraulic machine invented by Heron of Alexandria. Heron's fountain — A standalone fountain that operates under self-contained hydro-static energy; now called Heron's fountain.
• Automatic door 50~ · achieved
  Door that opens automatically, usually upon sensing the approach of a person. Automatic door — In the 1st century AD, mathematician Heron of Alexandria in Roman Egypt invented the first known automatic door. He described two different automatic door applications.
• Belt drive 50~ · achieved
  Loop of flexible material used to mechanically link rotating shafts.
• Hero's aeolipile and automata 50 · achieved
  Hero of Alexandria: a steam reaction turbine, programmable cart and temple automata.
• Trip hammer 40 BCE · achieved
  Powered hammer. Before 40 BC: Trip hammer in China
• Vending machine 50 BCE~ · achieved
  Machine which automatically dispenses beverages, food or non-food products to customers after a payment. 1st century BC The first vending machine was described by Heron of Alexandria. His machine accepted a coin and then dispensed a fixed amount of holy water. When the coin was deposited, it fell upon a pan attached to a lever.
• Cam 250 BCE~ · achieved
  Rotating or sliding piece, with eccentric or variegated profile, in a mechanical linkage. 3rd century BC: Cam during the Hellenistic period, used in water-driven automata.
• Screw pump 250 BCE~ · achieved
  Type of pump construction. Screw pump — The screw pump is the oldest positive displacement pump. The first records of a water screw, or screw pump, dates back to Ancient Egypt before the 3rd century BC.
• Gimbal 250 BCE~ · achieved
  Support allowing rotation. 3rd century BC The inventor Philo of Byzantium (280–220 BC) described an eight-sided ink pot with an opening on each side, which can be turned so that any face is on top, dip in a pen and ink it-yet the ink never runs out through the hol…
• Fire hose 250 BCE~ · achieved
  Flexible tube used for delivering water or foam at high pressure, to fight fires. 3rd century BC Universal mechanical principle that was discovered and first applied by the engineer Ctesibius in his double-action piston pump, which was later developed further by Heron to a fire hose (see below).
• Chain drive 250 BCE~ · achieved
  Way of transmitting mechanical power. 3rd century BC First described by Philo of Byzantium, the device powered a repeating crossbow, the first known of its kind.
• Escapement 250 BCE~ · achieved
  Mechanism in clocks. 3rd century BC Described by the Greek engineer Philo of Byzantium (3rd century BC) in his technical treatise Pneumatics (chapter 31) as part of a washstand automaton for guests washing their hands.
• Archimedes' screw 250 BCE~ · achieved
  Machine used for transferring water from a low-lying body of water into irrigation ditches. c. 3rd century BC This device, capable of lifting solid or liquid substances from a lower plane to a higher elevation, is traditionally attributed to the Greek mathematician Archimedes of Syracuse.
• Ctesibius' water clock and pump 250 BCE · achieved
  Feedback-regulated clepsydra and force pump, Alexandria.
• Cogwheel 350 BCE~ · achieved
  Rotating wheel having teeth which mesh with another cogwheel or toothed part, used to transmit torque, convert rotation to translation or rarely other purposes. 4th century BC: Gears in Ancient China.
• Saqiyah 350 BCE~ · achieved
  Mechanical water lifting device. Saqiyah — Paddle-driven water-lifting wheels had appeared in ancient Egypt by the 4th century BCE.
• Horse mill 375 BCE · achieved
  Type of mill. 375 BC – 350 BC: Animal-driven rotary mill in Carthage.
• Crank 550 BCE~ · achieved
  Mechanism where an arm attached to a rotating shaft by which circular motion is imparted to the shaft. Late 6th century BC: Crank motion ( rotary quern ) in Carthage or 5th century BC Celtiberian Spain Later during the Roman empire, a mechanism appeared that incorporated a connecting rod.
• Tumble finishing 950 BCE~ · achieved
  Technique for smoothing and polishing a rough surface on relatively small parts. Tumble polishing – Indians innvoted polishing method in the 10th century BCE for mass production of polished stone beads.
• Lathe 1,350 BCE~ · achieved
  Machine tool which rotates the workpiece on its axis, and has provisions for using a tailstock. Lathe — The lathe is an ancient tool. The earliest evidence of a lathe dates back to Ancient Egypt around 1300 BC.
• Sundial 1,500 BCE~ · achieved
  Device that tells the time of day by the apparent position of the Sun in the sky. 1500 BC: Sundial in Ancient Egypt or Babylonia (modern-day Iraq).
• Sanitation of the Indus Valley Civilization 2,600 BCE~ · achieved
  Sanitation of Early Indian Civilisation. 2600 BC: Public sewage and sanitation systems in Indus Valley sites such as Mohenjo-daro and Rakhigarhi.
• Reservoir 3,000 BCE~ · achieved
  Artificial lake impounded using a dam or lock to store water. 3000 BC: Reservoir in Girnar, Indus Valley.
• Core drill 3,000 BCE~ · achieved
  Drill specifically designed to remove a cylinder of material. Core drill — The earliest core drills were those used by the ancient Egyptians, invented in 3000 BC.
• Seal 3,500 BCE~ · achieved
  Mark of a personal distinctive emblem intended to guarantee the authenticity of the author of a document onto which it is printed, embossed or affixed.
• Lock 4,000 BCE~ · achieved
  Mechanical or electronic fastening device. 4000 BC: Oldest evidence of locks, the earliest example discovered in the ruins of Nineveh, the capital of ancient Assyria.
• Sea wall 5,000 BCE~ · achieved
  Coastal defence. 5000 BC: Seawall in Tel Hareiz, near Haifa, Israel.
• Water well 8,400 BCE~ · achieved
  Excavation or structure created in the ground to access groundwater. 8400 BC: Oldest known water well in Cyprus.
• Mortar and pestle 35,000 BCE~ · achieved
  Equipment consisting of a bowl in which substances are ground using a pestle. 37 kya: Mortar and pestle in Southwest Asia